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September, 2006. There now exists an 'arc' of domination by Shiite militias in the north of Baghdad. Sunni militias have carved out a few enclaves in Baghdad's south, and are now expanding into nearby areas. The pieces of the puzzle are slowly aligning themselves as Iraq's sectarian divide widens.

Predictions for the near future:

(1) Azamiyah is being surrounded and will eventually fall into Shiite control.

(2) The Sunnis are pursuing territorial ambitions to consolidate their control in the southern areas of Sadiyah, Dora, and Muradiyah. This will lead to a new 'river war' between the Sunni and the Shiite militias on the opposite sides of the Tigris.

(3) The growth of these 'neighborhood coalitions' will marginalize the influence of the soldiers and politicians in the Green Zone.

Baghdad Violence

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